Federal $2B contribution to Ontario nuclear project has major implications for Saskatchewan
By Brian Zinchuk
BOWMANVILLE, ON – A major development in the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) in Ontario is crucially important for Saskatchewan, whose government just this week made clear it is for sure planning on building nuclear power generation.
A key component of that plan is securing federal backing to pay for at least part of the first Saskatchewan reactor. The Saskatchewan First Energy Security Strategy and Supply Plan was released by Crown Investments Corp. Minister Jeremy Harrison just three days before the federal announcement. It said:
The Government of Saskatchewan:
calls upon the federal government to invest in 75 per cent of the costs for the first nuclear reactor in the province;
calls upon the federal government to work with provinces on fiscal mechanisms for investments in nuclear power, nuclear supply chains and workforce development, and for a national nuclear industry that delivers domestic energy security and global exports;
This was reiterated by Harrison during his press conference in Cameco’s head office on Oct. 20. That press conference kicked off the inaugural Canadian Nuclear Association West conference, the first time such an event has been held in Western Canada. As Saskatchewan and SaskPower are moving towards building its first reactors, things have been moving on multiple fronts to get us there.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced on Oct. 23 that the federal government, via the Canada Growth Fund, “will invest $2 billion to support the construction and operation of the four small modular reactors (SMRs) at the Darlington New Nuclear Project (DNNP). This project will make Canada the first G7 country to bring SMR technology online and drive $500 million annually into Ontario’s nuclear supply chain. Once complete, Darlington’s first of four SMRs will provide reliable, affordable, clean power to 300,000 homes, while sustaining 3,700 jobs annually, including 18,000 during construction, over the next 65 years,” according to a federal government press release.
The release continued, “Prime Minister Carney was joined by the Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, who announced that the Government of Ontario will invest $1 billion in this project through the Building Ontario Fund. Ontario Power Generation remains the majority owner and operator of the DNNP, with the Canada Growth Fund and the Building Ontario Fund acquiring meaningful minority stakes in the project, representing 15% and 7.5% ownership, respectively.”
However, those ownership ratios don’t jive with the total cost of the project, which this past May was announced at $20.9 billion. If the combined $3 billion of the federal and Ontario contributions make up 22.5 per cent, then the total equity of the project would only be $13.3 billion, nowhere close to the $20.9 billion cost announced in May.
The release continued, “This investment will strengthen Ontario’s power grid and represents the kind of nation-building projects that defines Canada’s new economic approach. Together, the Government of Canada and the Government of Ontario are demonstrating Canada’s ability to meet the highest standards in developing world-class assets efficiently, cost-effectively, and competitively.”
Carney said, “The Darlington New Nuclear Project will create thousands of high-paying careers and power hundreds of thousands of Ontario homes with clean energy. This is a generational investment that will build lasting security, prosperity, and opportunities. We’re building big things to build Canada Strong.”
Ford said, “Today’s investment to support the first SMRs in the G7 is a downpayment on Ontario’s nuclear energy future. We’re protecting Ontario by supporting good-paying, long-term jobs for Ontario workers and building the energy infrastructure – including both SMRs and new, large-scale nuclear – needed to make Ontario an energy superpower.”
What this means for Saskatchewan
The project is highly applicable to Saskatchewan, as it is the very first construction of the GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactor anywhere in the world. That’s the same model SaskPower has chosen to build near Estevan, either on Boundary Dam Reservoir or Rafferty Reservoir, south of Macoun. SaskPower specifically chose that model so that it could partner with Ontario Power Generation, and gain the benefit of specifically not being the first of a kind (and all the typical high costs being first entails.) And the plan announced on Oct. 20 was the first instance where a solid number has been published – two units near Estevan.
In the May 7 announcement, the Province of Ontario press release said, “The first SMR will cost $6.1 billion, along with costs for systems and services common to all four SMRs of $1.6 billion. Costs are expected to decline with each subsequent unit as efficiencies are gained, similar to the Darlington Refurbishment Project.”
Analysis
As Pipeline Online reported back in May:
Cost of being first mover
Being the “first mover” with this new design of reactor places substantial risk upon Ontario and Ontario Power Generation, as nuclear projects are notorious for going grossly over-schedule and over-budget. It’s expressly because of those risks the Tennessee Valley Authority and SaskPower and several European power utilities are letting Ontario take the lead in “First-of-a-kind” (FOAK). But the promise of SMRs, according to proponents, is that they should be much easier to build than conventional large-scale reactors. And it has been widely asserted that “Nth-of-a-kind” (NOAK) will be considerably cheaper than the FOAK.
In this case, the numbers released by OPG and Ontario thus far would be:
$20.9 billion – ($6.1 billion FOAK + $1.6 billion common infrastructure) / 3 NOAK reactors = $4.4 billion per additional (NOAK) reactor.
To put that $20.9 billion into perspective, that’s equal to almost exactly the entire 2025-2026 provincial budget, whose total expense is pegged at $21.0 billion. The gross debt for 2026 is budgeted at $38.3 billion.
When then-Sask Power Minister Don Morgan made the initial SMR announcement three years ago, he warned the price could be higher than initially expected. Back in 2022, Morgan said, “A small reactor would cost in the range of $5 billion, so they’re certainly not inexpensive.”
Then-Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith said, “I’m going to suggest that the $5 billion number is quite high.”
Morgan added, “I would rather use a high figure and have it come in substantially lower than then one where we have to say it’s this much higher or have an overrun in construction. We’ll be watching carefully, as Ontario goes ahead, to make sure that the processes that they follow work well here, and we’re able to they have a significant benefit already. They are already licensed for nuclear facility, we have to go through both provincial and federal licensing requirements. And we want to watch that, as we as we go forward as we watch cost containment.”
So far, Morgan’s prediction has proven to be on the mark, as the average price for those four Darlington SMRs is indeed over $5 billion a piece. If, starting four years from now, SaskPower is able to build its first reactor for $4.4 billion, Saskatchewan’s request for 75 per cent would call for a $3.3 billion federal contribution. But if building the first one at Estevan does not incur the expected cost savings from being nth of a kind, and that price comes in at OPG’s $6.1 billion for its first reactor, then a 75 per cent contribution would be $4.6 billion. That’s well over double what Ontario got for its project, which is twice the size of Saskatchewan’s.
Moe’s response
Two days before the Ontario announcement, Moe was asked in a scrum about Saskatchewan’s 75 per cent request. He pointed out that Newfoundland had a considerable contribution for its own Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project. However, it should be noted that massive cost overruns on Muskrat Falls were expected to devastate the Newfoundland economy, and the federal bailout occurred days before Christmas in 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 lockdown, when most media attention was focused almost exclusively on the pandemic. Without the bailout, Newfoundland power rates would have just about doubled overnight.
Moe said on Oct. 21, “I think there’s a general ask of the industry, as we achieve a nuclear outbuild across Canada to achieve our energy security.
“I think with respect to the response on federal involvement in, you know, whether it be a hydro facility, of which we’ve seen some federal involvement, most particularly at Muskrat Falls, you know, We’ve offered and open the opportunity for the federal government to be involved in some of the very early stages of SMR outbuilds, whether that be here or in Ontario.
“And so, you know, I won’t say what the response has been. I think you can look to the budget that will be coming out in the very near future, with respect to what kind of a commitment we will see from the federal government when it comes to the role that they’ll play in us achieving that nuclear energy security, that electrical energy security in Canada in the months and years ahead. And I would say that would be the first step in what the answer might be in that conversation. You’re seeing the commitment from provincial levels of government, and there’s going to have to be a commitment from the federal level as well. I would say there’s a lot of discussion in that space, but we’ll see you know, as budgets come out, what that ultimately is,” Moe said.
In a post on LinkedIn, NDP critic for SaskPower Aleana Young said, “If Prime Minister Carney is interested in building economic and energy security, reducing emissions, and creating generational job security, the best bang for his buck – full stop – is investing in Saskatchewan’s electricity future.”
Thus, Ontario has set the precedent that a federal contribution has been made at the beginning of a new nuclear build-out. Saskatchewan can and should now expect its own handout from the feds. But the dollar amount Ontario got, with a much larger population, is substantially less than what Saskatchewan is now asking for. And as politicians on both sides of the aisle in the Regina Legislature are well aware, under a Liberal federal government Saskatchewan has definitely been the red-haired stepchild of confederation.