Pipeline Online: Natural gas and coal kept Saskatchewan’s lights on during frigid weather

By Brian Zinchuk

As extreme weather strained power grids and causes outages throughout much of the central and eastern North America, SaskPower’s grid remained strong, the Crown Corporation said, as it exported power to support neighbouring jurisdictions.

An exceptionally strong and lengthy winter storm brought extreme temperatures, heavy snow and freezing rain across a massive region stretching from west Texas to eastern Canada. On the morning of Sunday, January 25, more than 500,000 U.S. customers were without electricity, the company said in a release on Jan. 26.

From Friday evening through Monday morning SaskPower continuously sold the maximum of 150 MW into the Southwest Power Pool, the grid and wholesale market for 14 states in the United States Midwest. SaskPower also maintains interties with Alberta and Manitoba, and has sold up to 350 MW into the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) market at the US/Manitoba border during the weekend.

SaskPower is currently building an expansion of its intertie to the United States. The Tableland switchyard under construction west of Estevan is the receipt point for new power lines that will connect to the Southwest Power Pool grid in North Dakota. The expansion, which will add 500 megawatts capacity to the current 150 megawatts intertie, will allow power to be sent in both directions. The project is expected to cost $615 million and be completed in 2027. Once complete, that will allow up to 650 megawatts to flow on the collective interties to the US.

“Powered by coal and natural gas, Saskatchewan’s grid is built to keep the lights on and homes warm even during the most extreme temperatures, when power is needed the most,” said Jeremy Harrison, Minister Responsible for SaskPower. “In the years to come, we will continue to make decisions to ensure our communities and businesses can continue to grow, and that Saskatchewan can continue to grow as a net exporter.”

As temperatures plunged below -30 C on Saturday, January 24, 61 per cent of SaskPower’s generation came from natural gas and 29 per cent came from coal, together accounting for 90 per cent of total generation. Average system demand remained consistently above 3,500 megawatts during the weekend.

Wind output on that day averaged 40 megawatts out of a nameplate capacity of 817 megawatts. That’s 4.9 per cent output. But more significantly, wind made up just one per cent of the grid’s demand that day, despite making up 13.7 per cent of nameplate capacity for the entire Saskatchewan grid.

Coal output was 1,017 megawatts out of a capacity of 1,389 megawatts. Notably, that aggregate capacity number includes Boundary Dam Unit 5, but not Unit 4, which was retired. SaskPower is currently working on refurbishing its coal fleet, to the tune of $900 million over the next several years. Bringing Unit 4 back online is the top of the list and work is ongoing in that regard. Unit 5 is laid up but can be brought back into service, which apparently happened briefly over the holiday season. It’s next on the list for refurbishment.

That makes coal output 73.2 per cent. However, if you exclude BD Unit 5 from the aggregate number as it is laid up (and was supposed to be retired, according to federal coal regulations), then coal was at 1,017 out of 1,239 megawatts (BD Unit 5 is approximately 150 megawatts). That’s 82 per cent output from the fleet of Boundary Dam Units 3 & 6, Poplar River Units 1 & 2, and Shand.

Natural gas produced an average 2,092 megawatts out of a nameplate capacity of 2,481 megawatts. That’s 84 per cent average output on Jan. 24.

What’s also notable is that is one of the highest numbers for natural gas output Pipeline Online has seen since SaskPower started publishing this data in September 2022, both for gross output and as percentage of the total grid.

Before SaskPower shut down coal-fired Boundary Dam Units 4 and 5, and before the addition of natural gas-fired Great Plains Power Station in 2024, extreme weather days like this would typically see coal and natural gas-fired power generation neck and neck, at up to 44 per cent of the grid each, totalling 88 per cent of total generation. The shift towards more natural gas and less coal has shifted that number. But the restoration of those coal units will add capacity overall and allow coal to resume some more of the burden.

Hydro was 364 megawatts out of 865 megawatts capacity. That’s 42 per cent output, at a time when river flows are notably low.

Solar averaged 4 megawatts out of 30 megawatts capacity. That’s 13.3 per cent output.

“Other” was a net -64 megawatts, meaning we were exporting power.

“The government of Saskatchewan laid out a realistic and deeply considered Energy Security Strategy Plan last fall to ensure the future for reliable and affordable power in Saskatchewan. The strategy also lays out a new path going forward on grid reliability and transmission investments. The government remains committed to ensuring Saskatchewan is strong, safe and secure,” the release said.