Water Security Agency forecasts mostly below-normal spring runoff in Saskatchewan

Most of Saskatchewan is expected to see near- to below-normal spring runoff this year, according to the Water Security Agency’s 2026 runoff outlook released March 12.

The agency said runoff is expected to be well below normal from Kindersley to Assiniboia in the southwest, while conditions in eastern Saskatchewan near Yorkton are forecast to be above normal.

WSA said below-average precipitation in fall 2025 left much of the province dry at freeze-up. Snowfall this winter has been near normal across most of Saskatchewan, although the north and west-central regions received above-normal precipitation. Areas near the Manitoba border in southern Saskatchewan have seen less than normal winter precipitation.

The mountain snowpack in Alberta, which plays a major role in May and June flows in the Saskatchewan River Basin, is well above normal, the agency said. If that continues, snowmelt runoff into Lake Diefenbaker is expected to be above normal this year.

Most major water supply reservoirs in southern Saskatchewan, including Lake Diefenbaker and reservoirs in the Qu’Appelle River system, are currently at or above normal levels and are expected to remain near normal after spring runoff.

The exceptions are the McDougald and Harris reservoirs in the southwest, which are below normal. WSA said that if conditions do not improve, some reservoirs in the Bigstick Basin in the southwest, along with Reindeer Lake in the north, may remain lower than normal this year.

Drier conditions are also expected to result in lower flows and lake levels in the Churchill River Basin.

WSA said it will continue monitoring spring conditions, particularly southern Alberta’s snowpack. As of late February, snowpack in the Alberta prairie portion of the basin ranged from below normal to near normal.